- Written by Nick Breeze Nick Breeze
- Published: 25 September 2016 25 September 2016
“The current expected climate trajectory… effectively dooms the ice sheet!”
Spelte Glacier loses “Manhattan Island” sized chunk of ice
Professor Jason Box, a glaciologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, describes how the “largest ice shelf in Greenland has a northern tributary… and now this Manhattan Island sized ice shelf fragment has broken away” in what he calls a “spectacular event”.
2016 has been smashing world records for heat temperatures month on month, with the Arctic as a whole looking like it will show a sea-ice minimum that is equal to the historic low of 2012.
“North Greenland is the location of the Arctic’s largest remaining ice shelves, and that region has been reducing pretty steadily, these large areas… you know, they’re measured in Manhattan Islands.”
79N Glacier is the name of the largest ice shelf that this small ice-shelf tributary, known as the Spelte Glacier, buttresses against. This upward pressure on the larger glacier causes a slowing of the loss of the melting ice flowing into the sea.
“The more ice is lost from the fronts, the less resistance there is, and the faster Greenland loses its ice.”
Interconnected: burning fossil fuels and collapsing ice sheets
Professor Box explains that the ice sheet is responding to the warming of the atmosphere in complex ways that, although caused by humanity’s burning of fossil fuels, will not be advantageous to us in the long-run. This interconnectedness of the climate system is demonstrated by what we are seeing in Greenland.
The Arctic is heating much faster than other parts of the planet, and the loss of sea ice cover is rapidly accelerating this effect. The rise in temperature has a very serious effect on the Greenland ice sheet, as Professor Box explains here:
“The Greenland Ice Sheet, it has a kind of dome shape and warming brings melting higher onto that. Because the slope gets more gradual the higher you go, for every degree of warming, it actually has an exponential increase in the area of melting. This is because it is getting flatter. It eventually blows up and then you get warming at the highest points over the ice-sheet.”
Box emphasises that the Greenland ice sheet has been beyond its threshold of viability for over twenty years now and the situation is not getting any better; it is worsening:
“The longer we stay beyond that threshold, then the enhanced flow [of meltwater] can lower the surface [of the ice-sheet] down into warmer parts of the atmosphere.
Fundamentally, that is the irreversibility factor for Greenland: melting and induced thinning. If we get enough slumping and drawdown of the inland areas of the ice sheet, that in effect is irreversible. That’s the death sentence for the ice sheet.
It then really becomes a matter of how long does the ice sheet spend beyond its threshold? Given the expected climate trajectory that we are on, it is nothing but more warming, it effectively dooms the ice sheet!”
The size of Greenland, an area roughly three times the size of France and spanning three lines of latitude from 59º to 83º North,the Greenland ice sheet is over 3 kilometers thick in areas with more than 200 glaciers over 1 kilometer across and 45 glaciers over 5 kilometers across. With such a large and complex area to survey, scientists are only just discovering what the effects of climate change will be on the ice sheet and what the impacts are on human civilisation.
“There are a number of factors that are pushing Greenland beyond its threshold and one of them is the meltwater that is draining into the ice. That amount of meltwater has doubled in the last 50 years. The temperature of that water is several degrees warmer than the ice is internally. So that has an internal heating effect.
Internal ice heating is softening the ice and that makes it flow faster. Another factor is that the water then arriving at the bed is lubricating flow.”
Box also explains that meltwater draining down to the bottom of the ice sheet is causing basal sliding, literally the lubricating of the ice sheet at its base, which is causing it to slide.
“Then there’s the ocean, there’s an interaction there. The meltwater eventually makes it out into fjords and drives a heat exchange with a warming ocean that destabilises the largest outlet glaciers right at their grounding line. That is where the ice begins to float.
Because of the ice being eroded from below in the fjords, we are losing the ice shelves. Just in the last twenty years about three quarters of the area lost has been in north Greenland and those have been ice shelves. There are hardly any ice shelves remaining in the Arctic because they are very sensitive and they are eroding quickly.”
Impacts of Greenland melting
With all these processes amplifying the rate at which ice melts and the region becomes warmer, much of the attention has focussed on the risk posed to coastal areas from sea-level rise. Greenland has the potential to create sea-level rise of over 7 metres if it were to fully melt. Considering that most of global agriculture and an enormous amount of our societal infrastructure lies at less than a metre above sea-level, it is clear that we do not need to wait centuries to be concerned about what is happening in Greenland. The melt of the ice sheet is already a major contributor to accelerating sea-level rise, noticeably impacting places like Florida in the USA.
The “cold blob”
Other effects that have been observed relate to the fresh water “cold blob” that is forming in the north Atlantic. This cold blob has been linked to extreme flooding events we have seen in the UK and other parts of north west Europe.
“In the last few years we have started to think beyond the obvious impact of land ice loss, that is sea-level rise. That problem is a big, big problem, especially later in the century. There are other impacts from Greenland melting and they include the oceanographic disruption in the north Atlantic.
There has been an accumulation of some thousands of square kilometres of freshwater in the north Atlantic and that has been contributing to a slowdown of an important ocean circulation. The effect of that is a cooling at the surface of the north Atlantic, just south of Iceland. With the cold pool, there have been record cold sea surface temperatures at a time when global temperatures have been record warm in the atmosphere. That temperature contrast of the cold pool with warm water adjacent to it to the south... that actually strengthens storms!
So storms drifting over this cold pool are strengthened and they can run into north western Europe and this has been happening.”
A good example of this is the flooding that took place in late 2015 in the UK and Ireland, where huge floods caused chaos. These climate change induced floods coincided with the timing of the UNFCCC conference in Paris - COP21 that produced the historic ‘Paris Agreement’. As Professor Box and many others have pointed out, even if we achieve the reduction of emissions as calculated by the carbon budgets, there is still no strategy for how we reduce the current levels of atmospheric carbon that will see temperatures rising to well over 3ºC, no matter what emissions reductions are achieved.
The current warming trajectory means that Greenland’s ice sheet will stay beyond its threshold of viability for the foreseeable future. This means that a concerted determination between policymakers, civil society and investors is required if we are to reduce the risks of worsening impacts in the future:
“Greenland is being pushed beyond its threshold of viability so that if warming continues as we expect, we effectively lose the Greenland ice sheet. It takes some centuries to lose half of the volume but even losing a small fraction of that volume is already a problem.
That brings the relevance of the matter much closer to the present… but what makes a lot more sense for people and policymakers is the next fifty years. We are already seeing threatening problems in that timescale and that just shows the severity of it, because the problem is not just going away fifty years from now, the problem is getting worse.”
- Written by Nick Breeze Nick Breeze
- Published: 12 September 2016 12 September 2016
These two experts about the risks posed by climate change and the urgency with which we need to respond.
This call is hosted by Nick Breeze of Envisionation.co.uk and covers the topics of climate science, political response and the need for a wider understanding of the huge threat humanity faces from abrupt climate change.
- Written by (Reposted) PIK (Reposted) PIK
- Published: 30 August 2016 30 August 2016
A forest with greater diversity of plants can better adjust to climatic stress. Now for the first time, a team of scientists can show this in computer simulations of the Amazon region by accounting for its amazing diversity of trees. Biodiversity can hence be an effective means to mitigate climate risks and should not only be seen in the context of nature conservation.
- Written by PIK PIK
- Published: 26 July 2016 26 July 2016
Climate disasters like heat-waves or droughts enhance the risk of armed conflicts in countries with high ethnic diversity, scientists found. They used a novel statistical approach to analyze data from the past three decades. While each conflict is certainly the result of a complex and specific mix of factors, it turns out that the outbreak of violence in ethnically fractionalized countries is often linked to natural disasters that may fuel smoldering social tensions. This finding, to be published in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences, can help in the design of security policies – even more so since future global warming from human-made greenhouse-gas emissions will increase natural disasters and therefore likely also risks of conflicts and migration.
By Damian Chalmers and Anand Menon
For Open Europe
A ‘three step’ Brexit solution, including an ambitious transitional arrangement, is key to meeting the aspirations of the British people and reaching a mutually beneficial long-term relationship with the EU, argues a new briefing authored by Professors Damian Chalmers and Anand Menon published today by Open Europe.
Anthony Hobley: Vote Leave would result in "A bonfire of environmental regulations in this country!"
- Written by Nick Breeze Nick Breeze
- Published: 19 June 2016 19 June 2016
In a Vote leave scenario, Anthony Hobley, financial analyst, The Carbon Tracker, says: “I don’t think it is far fetched to imagine a bonfire of environmental regulations in this country!”
- Written by Envisionation Envisionation
- Published: 13 April 2016 13 April 2016
Bill McKibben, co founder of 350.org:
“This is a company that wilfully and deliberately sought to delay, dismantle or destruct climate action. Perhaps if they had spent more time and money diversifying their business rather than on lobbying against climate action and sowing the seeds of doubt about the science, they might not have joined the long (and ever growing) list of bankrupt global coal companies.”
Ilmi Granoff, Attorney and Senior Researcher at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). P: +1 212 729 8123
“We know their playbook. As coal majors like Peabody lose out to cleaner technologies in their home markets, they pitch their industry as the solution to poverty. But increasingly developing economies - from Ethiopia to China - aren’t buying the pitch. Cleaner technologies are delivering better on everything from household energy access to national energy security.”
New research may well point to the fact that recent warming has produced more reliable vintages but if we look at some of the indicators of what the rest of this century really heralds then the forecast for many regions, including Britain, becomes much less rosy.
Retrospective analysis: 1600 - 2000
Looking back at 400 yrs of wine harvest records may seem like a longtime and certainly enough to base a study of viticulture on, however, we know that for the last ten thousand years we have been in a relatively stable climate period with a certain range of temperature variability that we have not strayed outside of. Whenever we have come close to the boundary of that variability, it has represented great hardships and often death for many people.
Lord Nicholas Stern, FBA FRS (Chair)
Professor John Loughhead OBE FREng FTSE - Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC)
Matthew Bell - Chief Executive at the Committee on Climate Change
Professor Joanna Haigh CBE FRS - Co-Director of the Grantham Institute - Climate Change & the Environment
Jeremy Leggett - Founding Director, Solarcentury; Founder & Chairman, Solaraid; Chairman Carbon Tracker Initiative
Jon Williams - Partner, Sustainability & Climate Change, PwC
In this interview, founding Director of the influential Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK), Dr John Schellnhuber stresses that in the wake of the Paris Agreement, “We can save the planet, we can create a very sustainable economy that serves everybody on this planet but we have to do it very quickly.”
- Written by PIK Press PIK Press
- Published: 23 February 2016 23 February 2016
Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Sea-levels worldwide will likely rise by 50 to 130 centimeters by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced rapidly.
In part 2 of this Post COP21 series of mini documentaries I have focused on the limits of what politics can deliver as to way of setting a level of expectation. The Paris Agreements excludes some key details that have a material impact on the lives of billions of people. The next step is to engage civil society with these issues and use our collective power to create a momentum for change.
This event, hosted by the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, is one of the necessary incremental conversations that we shall be seeing connecting the UNFCCC COP’s over the next 5 years to 2020.